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Case-Shiller Posts 16th Straight Month Of Home Price Improvement

September 1, 2010 By Administrator Leave a Comment

Case-Shiller Change In Home Values May-June 2010

According to the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier.  It’s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.

That said, homeowners and home buyers in tucson would do well to temper Case-Shiller enthusiasm. The June figures are issued on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.

Stories like these highlight a key weakness of the Case-Shiller Index — it’s out of date as soon as it’s published. Because of this, the Case-Shiller Index relevance to everyday Americans is muted. People don’t buy homes in the “60 days ago” real estate market, after all.

June is ancient real estate history to buyers and sellers in sam hughes.

However, the Case-Shiller Index does have its place. As the most widely-followed, private-sector housing tracker, the index is used to help make policy decisions and to shape Wall Street’s expectations of the economy. This means that a strong Case-Shiller reading can cause mortgage rates to rise, and a weak Case-Shiller reading can cause rates to fall.

Tuesday, mortgage rates fell.

Anne and Eddie McKechnie

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

2890 E Skyline Drive, Ste 250

Tucson Az 85718

http://thetucsonexperts.com

Filed Under: Case-Shiller Index, Tucson Real Estate Blog, Tucson Real Estate Market Tagged With: Case-Shiller Index, Home Values, tucson mortgages, tucson real estate

Existing Home Sales Plummet Nationally In July; Home Buyers Gain Leverage

August 25, 2010 By Administrator Leave a Comment

Existing Home Sales July 2009 - July 2010The number of home resales plunged by 1.4 million units in July, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ Existing Home Sales report.

It’s a drop of 27 percent from June; single-family home resales are at the report’s lowest levels since May 1999.

Furthermore, because of the sharp drop in sales volume, home inventories are spiking.

Homes for sale nationwide fell just short of 4 million units in July and, at the current sales paces, it would take 12.5 months for the existing inventory to be absorbed.

Home supply was just 8.9 months in June.

For home sellers in tucson , the Existing Home Sales report is a bit of bad news.  Fewer sales and larger inventories put negotiation leverage in the hands of the buyers which, in turn, creates downward pressure on home prices.  It may also increase time-on-market.

For home buyers, however, the data is decidedly welcome. After a stimulus-driven spring buying season that favored sellers, the summer and early-fall market seem to favor buyers. More choices and more leverage is a positive.

It helps that home affordability is up, too.

Although there’s reports that home values are rising, their modest gains are more than countered by the ongoing rally in mortgage rates. Freddie Mac says that 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in history and, at today’s rates, every one-eighth drop in mortgage rates roughly offsets a 1.5% increase to home price.

Mortgage rates are down 0.75 percent since mid-April.

Anne and Eddie McKechnie

Realtors Consultants

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

2890 E Skyline Drive, Ste 250

Tucson, Az 85718

http://thetucsonexperts.com

Filed Under: Existing Home Sales, Tucson Real Estate Blog, Tucson Real Estate Market Tagged With: Existing Home Sales, Home Supply, Home Values

Home Values Within 12.5 Percent Of April 2007 Peak, Nationwide

August 6, 2010 By Administrator Leave a Comment

Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

   Tucson Home Values

According the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home values are now off just 12.5 percent from their April 2007 peak nationwide.  This, after a half-percent monthly increase in prices in May, on average.

Given the state of the market since April 2007, the Home Price Index results are a positive for both the housing market and the economy, but we have to remember that May’s half-point increase is an average, and not specific to a particular area.

In contrast to “national markets”, the real estate markets in which you and I live are decidedly local.  It’s a major difference and the distinction renders the Home Price Index somewhat less important. 

After all, the HPI doesn’t account for housing activity in individual neighborhoods like catalina foothills , nor does it track value across cities like oro valley. Instead, it summarizes data in giant chunks of geography.

A quick look at the HPI regional data proves the point. Of the HPI’s 9 tracked regions, only one was within one-tenth of one percent of the national, half-point average.  The others varied by as much 1.3 percent.

As a sample:

  • Mountain Region : + 1.7 percent
  • New England : + 0.2 percent
  • South Atlantic : +1.0 percent

And this is on a regional basis. The HPI’s applicability to state, city and neighborhood markets is even less appropriate.

Real estate values cannot be captured in a national survey. For home buyers and seller, what matters is the economics of a block, on a street, in a neighborhood.  That type of granularity can’t be tracked in a report like the Home Price Index.

The best place to get that data is from a local real estate agent that knows the market well.

 

Call us or email us for info….

 

Anne and Eddie McKechnie

 

Realtors Consultants

 

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
2890 E Skline Drive, Ste 250
Tucson, Az 85718

 

http:.thetucsonexperts.com

 

“Helping Tucson families with their homes one step at a time”

 

Filed Under: Home Price Index, Tucson Real Estate Blog, Tucson Real Estate Market, Tucson Real Estate Statistics Tagged With: Home Price Index, Home Values, HPI

Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In 95% Of Cities

July 28, 2010 By Administrator Leave a Comment

Case-Shiller Change In Home Values April-May 2010

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, between April and May 2010, home prices rose in 19 of Case-Shiller’s 20 tracked markets.  It’s the second straight month of strong Case-Shiller findings.

Also, May’s numbers are a mirror-image of February’s. In February, 19 of 20 markets lost value.

In its press release, the Case-Shiller staff resisted calling May’s data proof of a housing recovery, noting that home values remain flat as compared to October of last year. However, there are some noteworthy numbers in the Case-Shiller report.

  1. 13 of the 20 tracked cities are showing home price improvement year-over-year
  2. Foreclosure posterchlld San Diego has now shown 13 straight months of improvement
  3. San Diego, San Francisco and Minneapolis are showing double-digit annual growth

These are all good signs for the housing market, but the Case-Shiller Index is not without its flaws. Most notably, the data is limited to just 20 cities nationwide — and they’re not even the 20 largest ones. 

Cities like Houston, Philadelphia, and San Jose are excluded from Case-Shiller, while cities like Tampa (#54) are not.

Another Case-Shiller flaw is that it reports on a 2-month delay.

Therefore, today is several days from the start of August but we’re now reflecting on data from May. Given the speed at which the oro valley real estate market can change, May’s data is almost ancient.  Today’s values may be higher or lower than what Case-Shiller reports.

For home buyers, reports like the Case-Shiller Index may not be useful in making a “Buy or Not Buy” decision, but can aid in watching longer-term trends in housing.  For real-time data, talk to a real estate agent with access to local figures instead.

Filed Under: Case-Shiller Index, Tucson Real Estate Blog, Tucson Real Estate Market Tagged With: Case-Shiller Index, Home Values

The Year Is Half-Over. How Did The Housing Experts Fare On their Tucson Real Estate Market Predictions?

July 1, 2010 By Administrator Leave a Comment

Housing and mortgage rate forecastsAs 2009 was ending, the “experts” were busy making forecasts about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2010.

With respect to the housing markets, two predictions were made again and again:

  1. Home prices would fall in the first half of 2010
  2. Mortgage rates would be higher in 2010

Well, it’s July 1 and the year is half-over.  Both predictions are proving to be incorrect. Home values are rising in most markets and mortgage rates are down. Way down.

It reminds us that economists are much more skilled with analysis of the past versus predictions of the future.

A pile of data can only get you so far.

Think of Tucson housing market predictions like watching a local weather forecast. A meteorologist can look at the radar and tell you that rain is coming, but it’s never with 100% certainty.  There is always a chance of change.

The housing market is the same way.  Just as the U.S. economy is unpredictable, so are housing prices, and so are mortgage rates.

Therefore, when you have a personal finance decision to make, evaluate your options based on the information at hand today rather than an educated guess about the future. The future, after all, is subject to change — despite what the experts forecast.

Filed Under: Statistics, Tucson Real Estate Blog, Tucson Real Estate Market, Tucson Real Estate Statistics Tagged With: Home Values, Mortgage Rates

Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In 90% Of Cities

June 30, 2010 By Administrator 1 Comment

Case-Shiller Change In Home Values Mar-Apr 2010

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday.  The index is a monthly home valuation report from select cities and among the private sector’s most popular home pricing models.

In reviewing the April Case-Shiller Index and its accompanying analysis, it appears that the housing market’s rebound is gathering momentum.

In the index’s 20 tracked cities:

  • 18 of 20 improved from March to April 2010
  • Versus April 2009, home prices are up nearly 4 percent
  • The two “down” cities from April — Miami and New York — are off just 0.5% and 1.0% annually, respectively

Furthermore, as another sign of strength, San Diego, a city in which homeowners have lost a lot of equity since 2007, has now shown 12 straight months of home price improvement.

However, the Case-Shiller Index must be kept in context. It’s far from perfect.

For one, the index reports on a 60-day delay; it’s only now showing data from the end of April, when the federal homebuyer tax credit was expiring. Home sales have been weak since then it’s been reported.

And second, the Case-Shiller Index is limited to just 20 cities nationwide. Therefore, the index doesn’t consider every home sale in every American city — it only considers a select few. Many more U.S. homes are excluded from the Case-Shiller Index than are included.

But, despite its flaws, the Case-Shiller Index remains important with respect to economic analysis. Much like the government’s Home Price Index, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader trends in housing that shape government and monetary policy.

Filed Under: Case-Shiller Index, Tucson Real Estate Blog, Tucson Real Estate Market, Tucson Real Estate Statistics Tagged With: Case-Shiller Index, Home Price Index, Home Values
The content of The Tucson Real Estate Blog is copywritten to Anne and Eddie McKechnie of Codwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Tucson Arizona